Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 0.050285 0.057280 0.065113 0.074577 0.085755 0.098601 0.114577
2025-11-30 0.040090 0.048794 0.059365 0.073289 0.091358 0.114307 0.146134
2025-12-07 0.032820 0.042256 0.054543 0.072018 0.096730 0.131210 0.184404
2025-12-14 0.026651 0.036016 0.048977 0.068715 0.098919 0.144983 0.223872
2025-12-21 0.021031 0.029578 0.042023 0.062115 0.095048 0.149445 0.252075
2025-12-28 0.018043 0.026427 0.039285 0.061349 0.100284 0.170489 0.318387
2026-01-04 0.015931 0.024254 0.037676 0.062137 0.108628 0.200447 0.418287
2026-01-11 0.014017 0.022093 0.035721 0.061970 0.115481 0.230917 0.539677
2026-01-18 0.012417 0.020202 0.033903 0.061709 0.122348 0.265114 0.697225
2026-01-25 0.010867 0.018167 0.031488 0.059786 0.125332 0.292537 0.861977
2026-02-01 0.009443 0.016154 0.028786 0.056708 0.124925 0.312056 1.024128
2026-02-08 0.008559 0.015018 0.027595 0.056658 0.132102 0.357370 1.338147
2026-02-15 0.007759 0.013949 0.026414 0.056509 0.139559 0.410306 1.774447
2026-02-22 0.007158 0.013192 0.025759 0.057510 0.150966 0.486095 2.480708
2026-03-01 0.006606 0.012455 0.025028 0.058181 0.162011 0.571227 3.470946
2026-03-08 0.005994 0.011512 0.023682 0.056934 0.166663 0.636026 4.536849
2026-03-15 0.005274 0.010252 0.021419 0.052650 0.159392 0.642318 5.140781
2026-03-22 0.004902 0.009706 0.020766 0.052845 0.168702 0.742419 7.222559
2026-03-29 0.004631 0.009350 0.020517 0.054204 0.183469 0.892456 11.001770
2026-04-05 0.004341 0.008916 0.020007 0.054650 0.195073 1.042311 16.301592
2026-04-12 0.004073 0.008499 0.019476 0.054914 0.206363 1.210956 24.439297
2026-04-19 0.003769 0.007963 0.018551 0.053636 0.210080 1.332111 33.691365
2026-04-26 0.003454 0.007366 0.017380 0.051243 0.207346 1.399302 42.894921